On July 26, 2026, Japanese chip startup Rapidus announced at its Chitose factory in Hokkaido that it had successfully completed trial production of 2nm chips, with yield exceeding expectations at 85%. The company plans to begin mass production in 2027, becoming one of the first to mass-produce 2nm chips globally, directly challenging the dominance of TSMC and Samsung.
Tech Breakthrough and Mass Production Plan
Rapidus's trial 2nm chips use IBM-licensed nanosheet transistor technology and integrate advanced manufacturing equipment from Japanese suppliers such as Tokyo Electron and Disco. According to Rapidus CEO Atsuyoshi Koike, the trial chips outperform TSMC's 3nm products in both power and performance, with a 35% improvement in energy efficiency. The company has invested approximately 5 trillion yen in the Chitose factory, with the Japanese government subsidizing 920 billion yen.
Core of Japan's Semiconductor Revival Plan
Rapidus's rapid progress is a key part of the Japanese government's 'Semiconductor Industry Revival Strategy.' Since its launch in 2021, Japan has invested over 3 trillion yen to support domestic chip manufacturing, aiming to regain advanced process technology by 2030. Rapidus collaborates with international organizations like IBM and IMEC to introduce cutting-edge processes and cultivate local talent. This successful 2nm trial is another milestone following the 2025 trial of 2nm test chips.
Industry Impact and Competitive Landscape
Rapidus's mass production plans will pose a direct threat to existing foundry giants. TSMC plans to mass-produce 2nm chips in the second half of 2026, while Samsung expects to launch its 2nm products in 2027. If Rapidus meets its timeline, it will break the duopoly and offer a third option for global chip customers. Analysts note that Japan's advantages in materials and equipment will help Rapidus lower costs, and its 'foundry + packaging' integrated model could attract orders from giants like Apple and Nvidia.
Impact on Asia-Pacific Supply Chain
Rapidus's rise will profoundly affect the Asia-Pacific semiconductor supply chain. On one hand, Japanese equipment makers like Tokyo Electron and Disco will benefit from increased domestic orders; on the other hand, foundries in South Korea and Taiwan may face customer diversion. However, TSMC still has advantages in technical maturity and customer loyalty, making it tough to unseat in the short term. For China's chip industry, Rapidus's success validates the 'cooperation + independent R&D' approach, potentially encouraging Chinese firms to accelerate joint efforts with international partners.
Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities
Driven by the news, Rapidus's valuation has risen to 12 trillion yen, and its potential IPO is seen as one of the biggest tech listings globally in the next two years. Investors can focus on the following areas:
- Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks: Tokyo Electron, Disco, Nikon, etc., may see sustained orders.
- EUV photoresist supply chain: JSR, Shin-Etsu Chemical, etc., will benefit from high material consumption in 2nm processes.
- Foundry-related services: Packaging and testing firms collaborating with Rapidus, such as J-Devices, may see growth.
At the same time, risks should be noted: Rapidus faces challenges such as slow yield ramp-up, long customer qualification cycles, and price-cutting retaliation from Samsung and TSMC. Investors are advised to be patient and monitor mass production progress in 2027 and customer contract signings.
Conclusion
Japan's Rapidus successful 2nm chip trial marks a new phase in the global semiconductor technology race. Although mass production still faces uncertainties, it proves that Japan's revival in advanced manufacturing is not a fantasy. For the global chip industry, a diversified supply landscape helps reduce risk but also means fiercer competition. Investors should seize this trend and position themselves in the related supply chain in advance.
