In the first week of August 2026, the global semiconductor market once again reached a landmark moment: Apple's attempt to purchase domestic DRAM at lower prices was rejected, while at the same time, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron had fully booked their DRAM and HBM capacity for the entire year of 2027. When "price cuts" and "sold out" appear in the same week, the market senses not only an imbalance of supply and demand, but also an industrial transformation of pricing power transfer.
I. Event Review: Apple's Price Pressure Rejected, Domestic Storage Gains Pricing Initiative for the First Time
According to reports from Caixin, Apple recently attempted to negotiate lower DRAM procurement prices with domestic storage giants but was clearly rejected. Domestic storage firms insisted on prices no lower than Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, even demanding higher prices. This seemingly ordinary business negotiation reflects a fundamental change in the status of the domestic storage industry—supported by large and stable domestic demand orders, domestic storage no longer needs to accommodate Apple's harsh conditions.
Currently, Chinese local companies like Xiaomi have locked in domestic storage capacity through long-term contracts, domestic manufacturers are securing DRAM orders through high-priced long-term agreements, and the domestic market has basically achieved self-sufficiency. Analysts point out that this means China's semiconductor industry is moving from "low-cost substitution" to "active pricing", and the inflection point where pricing power shifts from buyer's market to seller's market has emerged.
II. 2027 Capacity Sold Out: A Certain Signal of the Super Cycle
According to Caixin citing industry sources, OEMs have recently completed capacity allocation negotiations for 2027, with DRAM and HBM capacity of the three major OEMs sold out in advance. NAND Flash, with relatively relaxed supply conditions, is expected to have its capacity booked by the end of August 2026. Regardless of whether long-term supply agreements (LTA) are signed, buyers are cooperating with OEMs' advance deposit model, confirming the market judgment that 2027 will be "the most storage-deficient year".
Data-wise, the latest forecast from Sigmaintell Consulting shows that the global semiconductor market sales in 2026 are expected to exceed $1.5 trillion, reaching approximately $1,587 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 107%, with the core driver being the global AI infrastructure investment wave. Among them, memory chip revenue is expected to be about $960 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 290%, accounting for about 60% of global semiconductor sales; the HBM market size will exceed $100 billion. The foundry industry shows an "all-industry, all-node" general increase pattern, with 2026 revenue expected to be about $189 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 20%, and mature processes are also experiencing the first dual increase in utilization rate and price in nearly three years due to AI spillover effects. Looking ahead to 2027, global semiconductor sales are expected to reach about $1.9 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, with the growth rate marginally slowing but the AI main line continuing.
III. Full Blossom of the Industrial Chain: Prosperity Transmission from Storage to Equipment and Packaging
The hot demand is being transmitted along the industrial chain. The financial reports of North America's storage "twins" confirm this trend: Western Digital's fiscal 2026 Q4 revenue was $3.75 billion, a 44% year-on-year increase; SanDisk's revenue in the same period was $8.96 billion, a 372% year-on-year increase, and it approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Domestically, the chip industry has entered the earnings announcement period. Among the constituent stocks of the Chip ETF (516920), 22 have disclosed earnings forecasts, with 20 expecting year-on-year net profit growth, and Jiangborong, Biwei Storage, Gigadevice Innovation, etc., expected to more than double.
In terms of capital, funds are accelerating into the semiconductor track. From August 5th to 6th, the A-share semiconductor sector had three consecutive strong rebounds. The Kechuang Chip Design ETF (589070) has accumulated a net inflow of over 2 billion yuan in nearly 60 trading days, and the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159558) once rose more than 4% during the trading day. SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won stated that global AI semiconductor demand in 2027 is expected to increase by 60% to 100%, while new supply is almost zero, and the supply-demand gap in the storage industry may further expand.
IV. From "Cycle Peak" to "Profit Duration": Deep Reconstruction of Valuation Logic
Guolian Minsheng Securities pointed out in its research report that this AI-driven storage prosperity cycle has not only brought improvement in profitability but also promoted changes in the industry's business model and capital market pricing logic. Unlike the traditional cycle model of "price increase—profit release—capital expenditure expansion—oversupply—price decline", the AI-driven storage cycle shows new characteristics: AI computing power infrastructure construction drives continuous growth in demand for HBM, DDR5, and enterprise SSD, and the industry has entered a new stage of demand-driven.
More importantly, the business philosophy of leading manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is changing, with the focus of industry competition gradually shifting from "Bit growth" to "Value growth", and from market share competition to profit quality competition. Leading manufacturers are actively reducing profit volatility through long-term supply agreements, more prudent capital expenditures, and rational supply management. This also means that the market's pricing logic for storage OEMs is gradually shifting from "profit peak" to "profit duration"—the focus of investors will shift from "how much can profit margins still increase" to "how long high profitability can be sustained".
V. Logic of Investing in Chips: Three Insights and Risk Warnings
Overall, this storage super cycle brings three core insights to investors:
- Significantly enhanced supply and demand certainty. The early sell-out of 2027 capacity means that the prosperity of the storage industry in the next two years has high visibility, with the supply-demand gap providing solid support for the price center, and the return expectation of industry capital expenditure is clearer.
- Pricing power is migrating. The rejection of Apple's price pressure by domestic storage marks a significant improvement in the bargaining power of Chinese storage manufacturers in the global industrial chain. The dual-wheel drive logic of "self-controllable + domestic demand digestion" has been verified, and the valuation premium of domestic substitution is expected to continue.
- Cycle attributes are weakening, growth attributes are strengthening. The storage cycle driven by AI demand is transforming from a traditional strong cycle industry to a growth industry with a longer "profit duration", and the valuation system of leading manufacturers is expected to be reshaped.
At the same time, risk factors are also worth noting. The price increase of storage in 2027 is expected to slow down, and market structural differentiation will be more obvious; overseas advanced manufacturing restrictions continue to strengthen, which may affect the progress of domestic advanced processes; in addition, the terminal demand of this cycle highly depends on the sustainability of AI capital expenditure. Once cloud vendors' capital expenditure falls short of expectations, the supply-demand situation may quickly reverse.
For investors, while focusing on the main line of memory chips, they should also pay attention to the prosperity transmission effects of industrial chain links such as foundries, semiconductor equipment, and advanced packaging, as well as incremental opportunities brought by regional supply chain reconstruction in Southeast Asia. As an important part of global storage packaging, testing, and supply chain layout, Southeast Asia is expected to continue to benefit in this super cycle, and regional capacity expansion and policy dividends may provide long-term allocation value for related targets.
(This article is compiled based on public market information for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.)
